Media price inflation trending towards long-term averages

Please note that the WFA Outlook tool is accessible to WFA members only. Interested in WFA membership? Get in touch with our team at membership@wfanet.org.

Globally, prices are expected to have risen by 4.0% year on year in 2024 and this will be followed by a further 4.1% increase in 2025. The new numbers are consistent with long-term averages, but will have a major impact on brand planning for the year ahead.

One caveat is that this round of forecasts was collected shortly after the unveiling of the new US economic policy – and contributors cited the new tariffs as creating additional uncertainty around their projections.

These have led brokerages to warn of an increased possibility of global recession in 2025 (here and here) and were this to occur we would typically expect downward pressure on media pricing. Overall, the mixed picture this year reflects that broader sense of caution at a time of huge geopolitical and economic uncertainty.

That aside, for 2025 Northern Europe is seeing the strongest upward movement, with the Netherlands (+7%), Germany (+6%) and France (+5%) outpacing global trends.

APAC is not far behind for 2025, however, with particularly sharp increases forecast in Indonesia (+8%), the Philippines (+6%, with strong price inflation across digital channels) and Thailand (+6%). China, by contrast, is expected to see more modest growth of around 3%, reflecting ongoing market headwinds.

At the local level, some markets are showing clear signs of easing price pressure. Ireland, Belgium, Spain — and even Argentina and Turkey — have seen inflation soften since the last wave.

In the UK, however, the pattern we flagged last year is still playing out: inflation is running ahead of forecasts but driven less by demand growth and more by a sharp decline in linear TV viewing, which is pushing cost per viewer significantly higher.

In the US, the inflation estimates for 2025 remains relatively stable for most channels in 2024 and 2025, with the exception of Paid Search. Inflation in this media channel is the highest in the world (6.3% - compared to an average of 4%) for 2025.

The cause for this spike is intriguing. Consumer habits continue to evolve, with younger demographics increasingly starting their purchase journeys on retail sites rather than search engines – and this reduction in traditional search is amplified by the increased use of AI agents. The US is a lead market for both these trends, making this a space to watch closely.

Connected TV is following a similar path to linear TV — though inflation levels trend slightly lower. This has been explored in a WFA webinar with Vincent Letang, EVP Global Market Intelligence IPG, who looked at the drivers behind these changes and what they mean for planning in the year ahead.

This is a moment of significant geopolitical and financial uncertainty. The advertisers who will emerge as winners are those who embrace the opportunity, maintain a long-term perspective, and remain steadfast in the face of both hyperbole and doom-mongering. By staying anchored in data and preserving flexibility in their media-buying strategies, these advertisers will be best positioned to adapt and thrive.

This is a time for advertisers to reassess and reinforce the value they deliver, not to react impulsively to volatility but to prepare strategically for it. Strengthening transparency across media supply chains is critical, providing the control and agility needed to navigate an increasingly unstable landscape. In this climate, competitive advantage will be defined by strategic clarity and operational readiness — Mark Gay, Global Chief Operating Officer at Ebiquity.

While we are in a period of some volatility through international trade policy, and we all see the significant Impacts of that in equity and bond markets, we currently see a good amount of resilience in adspend. If we are moving into a more inflationary period then strength of brand assumes an even greater importance, with investment in media an effective tool in brand support. We are of course tracking sentiment and spend very closely, and with increased cadence, as we head through this next period — Tim Howett, OMG.